Description
On a Deriv Step Index every tick moves price by exactly one step, up or down, with equal odds. That makes the size of a normal move known before the candle even opens: one standard deviation per bar is the step size times the square root of the number of ticks in that bar. Volatility indices are predictable in the same way, because each one runs at a fixed annual volatility. Step Sonar Options uses that model to answer the question a Rise/Fall trader actually has: how stretched is price right now, and what has happened at a 5 or 15 minute expiry in the past when it was this stretched?
The chart shows an equilibrium line (a 60-bar average) with bands at 1, 2 and 3 sigma, sized by the model rather than by recent noise, and candles that brighten the further price stretches from equilibrium. Swing highs and lows are tracked as levels, and SWEEP is marked when a wick runs at least two steps beyond one and the candle closes back inside. Exhaustion arrows mark the bar where price comes back from beyond 2 sigma with a candle in the opposite direction.
A RISE or FALL label needs two of three conditions within the last three bars: price stretched past 2 sigma, a swing level swept, or a streak of five or more candles in one direction. By default the stretch must be one of the two. Signals are confirmed on the closed candle, so a label never appears and then vanishes.
To the right of the last candle, a probability cone shows where price can realistically be after each bar up to the longest expiry, with 1 and 2 sigma edges and a marker at the 5 and 15 minute settlement points giving the expected spread in steps. A price grid snaps to the step lattice on Step indices. An optional fair-odds planner (off by default) draws upper and lower barriers for Touch or multiplier trades, with the chance of reaching each one first and the expected time to exit.
The dashboard is where it earns its keep. Rise/Fall pays only when the exit spot is strictly beyond the entry, so on a Step Index a tie at expiry is a loss and a coin-flip Rise wins slightly less than half the time. The panel prices that in: the break-even win rate for your payout (51.3% at the default 95%), plus the coin-flip win rate, tie chance and expected value at each expiry. For the current stretch state it then shows the measured Rise and Fall odds at each expiry across up to 20,000 bars of history, with a sample size discounted for overlapping windows, a 95% margin and a plain verdict: too few samples, no edge versus break-even, or beats break-even in-sample (verify). A signal record scores every RISE and FALL at both expiries, with the win rate, the split by direction and the tie rate. A sigma sanity check compares the measured volatility with the model and tells you if the step size or tick rate needs adjusting, and the last line is a reality check on martingale. None of these numbers is a forecast: they are measurements on the history you have loaded.
The market is detected from the symbol name: Step Index 100 to 500, Multi and Skew Step, Volatility 10 to 250 and the 1-second versions, with overrides for step size, volatility and ticks per second. Multi/Skew Step and other symbols use measured volatility instead of the model. Expiries need a whole number of bars, so M1 and M5 score both expiries; on M15 only the 15 minute expiry is scored.
Alerts fire on a confirmed RISE or FALL, with optional exhaustion and sweep alerts, by popup, push notification or sound, and only on live bars, never for history when the indicator loads. An Expert Advisor can read buffer 14 (RISE), 15 (FALL) and 16 (stretch in sigma) through iCustom at shift 1.
Single self-contained .mq5 with no includes, plus a README covering installation, the model, the signals, the dashboard, every input and the buffer map. Free MT5 download. Educational tool, not financial advice: Rise/Fall contracts carry a high risk of loss, so test on a demo account first.
Works well with SSL Reversal & Breakout Matrix – Step Sonar fades a stretch, and the SSL Matrix shows when a stretch is turning into a trend instead.
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